ALBERTA REAL ESTATE CRYSTAL BALL
READ THE BLOG POST HERE AS WELL
During The 2007 Boom Days,
Investors ASKED For Another
Pre-boom Buying Window…
Is It Here, Or Not?
How Are You Deciding?
Greetings blog subscribers,
It is time for me to be a little bit blunt and I apologise in advance. This weekend changed me, it changed me because of the research I was doing, it changed me to the point that I had to write this unscheduled post.
In the 1990's Albertans thought it was too late to get into the real market (the downturn had just occurred). In the 2000's, Albertans thought it was too late to get into the real estate market (the downturn had just occurred). At each point there seemed to be as many reasons NOT to invest, as there were reasons TO invest. Yet the market took off and the brave investors did incredibly well.
During both those periods, people outside of Alberta were the first to see its opportunity and they snapped up the cash-flowing deals long before most Albertans themselves awoke to the fact that they were living right in the midst of what would prove to be the next economic boom (job growth, population growth, real estate demand increases).
In other words, those outside the province ate many an Albertan's cash-flow lunch. It was only after the momentum was at full speed that many did awaken to try and get into the market.
This blog entry is a wake-up call. I do not sell real estate, nor do I profit if someone buys a property. My job is to analyze what's really going on by peeling away the confusing messages, and when windows of opportunity open, to point them out to savvy investors.
So let me get to the point… as of this weekend I have not seen the Alberta economic fundamentals pointing to this strong of long term momentum in all the years I have been studying them. And this factors into the turmoil that is occurring around the world, the strong Canadian dollar, the huge debt being created in the US, and the potential for a longer term world economic doldrum.
Those outside the province are already seeing it, and are jumping in with both feet (just like the last two times). My wish is that Albertans aren't the last to see it again.
Here's a very quick snap shot of what's happening right in your back yard. And why March 19, 2011 is such an important date for investors across the Alberta
Real Estate Market Numbers are Exactly
The Wrong Places To Look When You Want
To Predict What's Going To Happen
Here's what you use to predict the real estate market future: The Momentum Graph, which shows exactly the progression of an economy and how it eventually impacts the Real Estate Market.
The Economic Formula to Predict The Future
In a nutshell this graph states the following:
GDP growth >> Job growth >> Population growth >> Increased rental demand (12 months later) >> Increased rents >> Property purchase demand (18 months later) >> and eventually leads to property price increases.
So where are we on this chart for Alberta?:
GDP Growth- The Foundation of it All:
Alberta Economy Set for Solid Growth in 2011: RBC Reports 4.3% hike in GDP forecast for this year >> article here. Plus the Conference Board of Canada states Alberta will lead country in growth in 2011.
As well, as you can see on the graph below, Calgary and Edmonton are forecasted to lead the country in GDP growth for major cities for the next 3 years.
Major Cities GDP Growth Forecasts
Good growth is 3%, yet they are predicting a whopping 4.3% growth for Alberta. This GDP growth leads to.
Alberta leads the country in employment gains in February. Close to 14,000 jobs created in February. To read the full article >> click here.
But even more important to you, look at the projected number of Construction Jobs being created over the next 8 years. You can see where we are today – compare that to 3 years in the future and you start to see what I am talking about.
We all remember how things were going in Alberta for the years 2006- 2008. Check out the future forecast for 2012- 2019 and you can see it easily surpasses that period.
Alberta Construction Job Forecast
I hope that you are seeing what I am seeing. It is coming over the next 24 months for Alberta – the momentum is beginning and sophisticated investors know how to get out in front of the cycle.
This is not speculating – this is true investing. Doors like this open every so often, your job is to step through them.
I hope to see you at an upcoming REIN™ event!
Don R. Campbell
Real Estate Investment Network™